The Debt Ceiling Game is On
The X Date is live. We now have an idea of the date on which the United States will run...
Beyond the News—TBAC: Treasury and the Bond Dealers Do a Kabuki Dance
TBAC, the Treasury Bond Advisory Committee, is an obscure body. Even those immersed in the fixed income markets may not...
Why Do Investors Discount Credit Risk?
The markets are awash in headlines about economic uncertainty and the rising prospect of recession, but these forces have barely...
Beyond the News: Risk, The New Obsession.
I’ve been thinking a lot about risk these days, and so should you. Some investment folks are paid to bet...
Dashboard
Yield and portfolio information to help public funds investment officials manage portfolios, monitor markets and benchmark portfolio performance of local government investment pools (LGIPs) and short term portfolios.
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Where's the Productivity? Slowing Inflation and the Promise of AI Have Yet to Impact Productivity
The quarterly productivity figures, released last week, were a bit of a non-event, but perhaps they shouldn’t be. With moderating inflation in recent quarters, the economy expanding at a solid pace through 4Q2024 and all of the promise of AI one would have thought labor productivity would receive a boost. It did not.
Productivity fell 0.8% in the quarter. Of course one quarter doesn’t make a trend, but this is something to keep an eye on. Over the next months supply disruptions and uncertainty around tariffs and taxes could continue to depress real output per hour (that’s the definition of labor productivity). That would pressure inflation higher and depress consumer sentiment.
Labor productivity growth averaged 1.8% over the past 10 years and 2% over the past 25 years. The differences may seem small but with compounding they have a notable effect on living standards over time.
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The Debt Ceiling Game is On
Beyond the News—TBAC: Treasury and the Bond Dealers Do a Kabuki Dance
Why Do Investors Discount Credit Risk?
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