Dashboard

Yield and portfolio information to help public funds investment officials manage portfolios, monitor markets and benchmark portfolio performance of local government investment pools (LGIPs) and short term portfolios.

Money Market Yields

The Fed: How low? How Fast?

Next Week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting may contain some  surprises but one thing is clear: the markets believe the central bank will re-start it’s easing program, targeting a 3% overnight rate in coming months. At least that is the message from the recent move down  in short-term Treasury yields.

The one year Treasury bill yield ended last week at 3.65% and the yield on the two year Treasury note ended at 3.51%.  Both were down by more than 40 basis points when compared with levels just prior to the July Fed meeting.

Without embarking on fancy calculations, it should be obvious that the current levels imply the Fed’s overnight rate will be around 3% a year from now and will then remain at about that level at least  for the following year.

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Insights

The Jobs Number

I generally try to  write about matters that are particularly relevant to public funds investors but this piece is more general.  Macroeconomic matters affect us all.  As I read through Congressional Budget Office analysis of the budget/deficit situation last week I was struck by the importance of underlying trends in population, labor force and productivity. […]

What to Do When the Fed Moves

The Federal Reserve is on the cusp of lowering short-term interest rates. Softening labor markets, inflation that has not (yet?) reacted to the new tariff regime and unrelenting political pressure from the Trump Administration are likely to lead the central bank to resume its easing later this month. (No, the Fed is not immune to […]

An Update on Privatizing Fannie and Freddie

There is nothing like a Trump Truth Social post to grab attention. That was the result when an AI generated image of the President ringing in a listing of stock of the Great American Mortgage Corporation (Ticker “MAGA”) 10 days ago put the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in play. These government sponsored […]

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