Dashboard

Yield and portfolio information to help public funds investment officials manage portfolios, monitor markets and benchmark portfolio performance of local government investment pools (LGIPs) and short term portfolios.

Money Market Yields

Surging Oil Prices, Higher Short Term Rates and A Revised Federal Funds Outlook


Surging oil prices and a less than positive report of personal consumption expenditures for January led to a significant back-up in short-term rates.  Local government investment pool yields were unaffected but longer-maturity investments added ten basis points or more.

Expectations for federal funds also moved up with the model for the January 2027 federal funds rate closing the week at 3.40%,up 35 basis points.  In January market economists were calling for as much as a 1% cut in the federal funds rate (now 3.50%-3.75%) this year.  Now the market is pricing in barely one cut and a few forecasts foresee the next Fed move to be up.

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Insights

Iran War: What to Watch

You don’t need extensive data analysis to know that the Iran War has become the force behind every tick in the financial market. Indeed, data can overwhelm to the point where it is difficult to discern reality.   What to follow?  Below are four factors that I’m focused on, with charts that you can find or […]

Iran and Interest Rates

What impact will the Iran war have on short-term markets? The headlines have been all about oil prices. They are up, and that’s important, but it is not the whole story. • Oil prices will affect inflation, though the effect is not straightforward. • The biggest impact on the markets is that the war heightens […]

Calm or Complacent: Short Term Markets Are Uncertain

You might think that the recent news on the economy would lead to big market moves. Tariffs—on, off or . . ., a partial government shutdown (again), a 20% swing in oil prices since September, the sharp rise in the price of gold, a new Federal Reserve chair in waiting. And President Trump continues to […]

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