Dashboard

Yield and portfolio information to help public funds investment officials manage portfolios, monitor markets and benchmark portfolio performance of local government investment pools (LGIPs) and short term portfolios.

Money Market Yields

Higher Inflation Outlook, No Fed Rate Cuts: The new Path for Treasury Yields

Here’s the Treasury yield curve (five years and in) at the end of last week.   There is a big change from the beginning of the year, reflecting renewed concerns about inflation and uncertainty arising because of the Iran War.  In a way the two forces are self-reinforcing: higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions push prices higher while an uncertain outlook for prices can alter consumer spending patterns.

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Insights

Beware the Ides of March

Yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluded with no change.  Or did it?  While the committee voted 11 to 1 to keep rates unchanged and released its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections with only modest tweaks, it also came at a time of a significant swing in market sentiment. Point to oil. At this writing […]

Iran War: What to Watch

You don’t need extensive data analysis to know that the Iran War has become the force behind every tick in the financial market. Indeed, data can overwhelm to the point where it is difficult to discern reality.   What to follow?  Below are four factors that I’m focused on, with charts that you can find or […]

Iran and Interest Rates

What impact will the Iran war have on short-term markets? The headlines have been all about oil prices. They are up, and that’s important, but it is not the whole story. • Oil prices will affect inflation, though the effect is not straightforward. • The biggest impact on the markets is that the war heightens […]

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