Kevin Warsh: Behind the Senate Testimony of the Federal Reserve Nominee
Beyond the sound bites from this week’s Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve are three issues that are much more important for the markets and economy than whether President Trump or his political adversaries “win” or “lose” this latest contest of political will. They are shrouded […]
First Quarter Investment Returns: Lessons Learned
It was not supposed to be this way. At the start of 2026, many investors were looking forward to declining short-term rates, with the Federal Reserve continuing to cut the federal funds rate to three percent by year-end. Some prominent economists forecast rates with a two percent handle by December. Longer-maturity investments, including two-year Treasuries […]
Not Much Has Changed, Or Has It?
It’s hard to see beyond the Iran war. That’s true of it’s humanitarian, but also of its economic/financial market effects. Not much has changed in a week besides the rhetoric. Or at least that’s the case if you look at the four factors that I illustrated in a recent issue of Beyond the News. Oil […]
Beware the Ides of March
Yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluded with no change. Or did it? While the committee voted 11 to 1 to keep rates unchanged and released its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections with only modest tweaks, it also came at a time of a significant swing in market sentiment. Point to oil. At this writing […]
Iran War: What to Watch
You don’t need extensive data analysis to know that the Iran War has become the force behind every tick in the financial market. Indeed, data can overwhelm to the point where it is difficult to discern reality. What to follow? Below are four factors that I’m focused on, with charts that you can find or […]
Iran and Interest Rates
What impact will the Iran war have on short-term markets? The headlines have been all about oil prices. They are up, and that’s important, but it is not the whole story. • Oil prices will affect inflation, though the effect is not straightforward. • The biggest impact on the markets is that the war heightens […]
Calm or Complacent: Short Term Markets Are Uncertain
You might think that the recent news on the economy would lead to big market moves. Tariffs—on, off or . . ., a partial government shutdown (again), a 20% swing in oil prices since September, the sharp rise in the price of gold, a new Federal Reserve chair in waiting. And President Trump continues to […]
Banks vs. LGIPs: The Saga Continues
Banks don’t like local government investment pools. Except for those banks that provide investment management, payment services, custody, or brokerage services to LGIPs. These include the nation’s largest banks (think JP Morgan, Bank of America, BNY, US Bank, State Street). But the rest, particularly the 4,000 or so community banks, are fierce competitors. Banks and […]
Move to Expand Deposit Insurance Gains Momentum
A proposal to increase federal bank deposit insurance to $10 million on non-interest-bearing transaction accounts in community and regional banks has gained momentum in Congress and with the Trump administration. If enacted, it would raise the limit on transaction accounts for businesses and municipalities from its current $250,000 limit. This could eliminate the need to […]
Where Next? A Review of Recent Investment Performance
Short/intermediate term fixed income portfolios have had strong returns recently. For the past 18 months or so as the Federal Reserve eased monetary conditions and interest rates fell they out-performed local government investment pools and other cash investments by a healthy margin. In the 12 months ending January 2026 our 1-3-year model portfolio returned 5.08%. […]