Transparency: The Fed’s Mandate
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s post Federal Open Committee meeting news conference got me thinking about how much information transparency has shaped the financial markets since I entered the business nearly 50 years ago, and the implications if the Fed moves to reduce transparency and access to information by ordinary investors, including those who manage […]
Why the Director of National intelligence is Involved in the Federal Agency Market
It may not be immediately apparent, but President Trump’s naming Bill Pulte Interim Director of National Intelligence has implications for the Federal agency market where $450 billion of public funds are invested. Before you dismiss this as crackpot, consider: Pulte is also the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and chairman of both Fannie […]
An Update on Credit
In November we wrote about cracks appearing in credit, cautioning investors that emerging risks could expose corporate bonds and commercial paper to losses and drag down returns of portfolios that hold them. Six months later the cracks have not expanded. Nor have they healed. But risk premiums for both investment grade and high yield credit […]
Ya Wanna Bet? The Rising Place of Prediction Markets in Investing
Would you go to a betting parlor to invest? Before you answer, consider: Betting on predictions and investing have a lot in common. Investors regularly use the vernacular of betting to describe market activities. We make “bets” on relative value, the future direction of interest rates and the likelihood that an investment we make might […]
Why Five Percent Yield on the 30 Year Treasury is a Big Deal
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond broke above five percent this week, and it’s kind of a big deal. It’s not that five percent triggered some pre-set realignment in the financial markets, or that the level resulted in a quantum change in gains, losses or winning and losing positions as compared with those positions […]
Sometimes No News Is News
The numbers are staggering. Last year Treasury issued $30.5 trillion of securities to fund the national debt. That’s nearly $600 billion a week. This year, through April issuance was $10.8 trillion, 10% ahead of the 2025 pace. Most of this is to refund/rollover existing debt but some is for new debt that will be required […]
Beyond the Fed: Why This Week’s Events May Be Less important than You Think
I’m guilty of having spent a good deal of time over the last two weeks on the eye-catching news on interest rates: the Senate hearing on whether to confirm Kevin Wash as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, the move by the Department of Justice to end a criminal probe of Jerome Powell, […]
Kevin Warsh: Behind the Senate Testimony of the Federal Reserve Nominee
Beyond the sound bites from this week’s Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve are three issues that are much more important for the markets and economy than whether President Trump or his political adversaries “win” or “lose” this latest contest of political will. They are shrouded […]
First Quarter Investment Returns: Lessons Learned
It was not supposed to be this way. At the start of 2026, many investors were looking forward to declining short-term rates, with the Federal Reserve continuing to cut the federal funds rate to three percent by year-end. Some prominent economists forecast rates with a two percent handle by December. Longer-maturity investments, including two-year Treasuries […]
Not Much Has Changed, Or Has It?
It’s hard to see beyond the Iran war. That’s true of it’s humanitarian, but also of its economic/financial market effects. Not much has changed in a week besides the rhetoric. Or at least that’s the case if you look at the four factors that I illustrated in a recent issue of Beyond the News. Oil […]