An Update on Credit
In November we wrote about cracks appearing in credit, cautioning investors that emerging risks could expose corporate bonds and commercial paper to losses and drag down returns of portfolios that hold them. Six months later the cracks have not expanded. Nor have they healed. But risk premiums for both investment grade and high yield credit […]
Ya Wanna Bet? The Rising Place of Prediction Markets in Investing
Would you go to a betting parlor to invest? Before you answer, consider: Betting on predictions and investing have a lot in common. Investors regularly use the vernacular of betting to describe market activities. We make “bets” on relative value, the future direction of interest rates and the likelihood that an investment we make might […]
Why Five Percent Yield on the 30 Year Treasury is a Big Deal
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond broke above five percent this week, and it’s kind of a big deal. It’s not that five percent triggered some pre-set realignment in the financial markets, or that the level resulted in a quantum change in gains, losses or winning and losing positions as compared with those positions […]
Sometimes No News Is News
The numbers are staggering. Last year Treasury issued $30.5 trillion of securities to fund the national debt. That’s nearly $600 billion a week. This year, through April issuance was $10.8 trillion, 10% ahead of the 2025 pace. Most of this is to refund/rollover existing debt but some is for new debt that will be required […]
Beyond the Fed: Why This Week’s Events May Be Less important than You Think
I’m guilty of having spent a good deal of time over the last two weeks on the eye-catching news on interest rates: the Senate hearing on whether to confirm Kevin Wash as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, the move by the Department of Justice to end a criminal probe of Jerome Powell, […]
Kevin Warsh: Behind the Senate Testimony of the Federal Reserve Nominee
Beyond the sound bites from this week’s Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve are three issues that are much more important for the markets and economy than whether President Trump or his political adversaries “win” or “lose” this latest contest of political will. They are shrouded […]
First Quarter Investment Returns: Lessons Learned
It was not supposed to be this way. At the start of 2026, many investors were looking forward to declining short-term rates, with the Federal Reserve continuing to cut the federal funds rate to three percent by year-end. Some prominent economists forecast rates with a two percent handle by December. Longer-maturity investments, including two-year Treasuries […]
Not Much Has Changed, Or Has It?
It’s hard to see beyond the Iran war. That’s true of it’s humanitarian, but also of its economic/financial market effects. Not much has changed in a week besides the rhetoric. Or at least that’s the case if you look at the four factors that I illustrated in a recent issue of Beyond the News. Oil […]
Beware the Ides of March
Yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluded with no change. Or did it? While the committee voted 11 to 1 to keep rates unchanged and released its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections with only modest tweaks, it also came at a time of a significant swing in market sentiment. Point to oil. At this writing […]
Iran War: What to Watch
You don’t need extensive data analysis to know that the Iran War has become the force behind every tick in the financial market. Indeed, data can overwhelm to the point where it is difficult to discern reality. What to follow? Below are four factors that I’m focused on, with charts that you can find or […]